How are NFL odds determined?

st important thing for bettors since this number dictates how much money they can possibly win.

Understanding the NFL odds is one of the first steps to becoming a professional NFL bettor and improving your winning chances.

So, if you are one of those people that are curious about where the lines originate, we are here to explain the entire betting process and how odds are determined.

Let’s dig a bit deeper into the roots of the betting market and find out how the NFL Vegas odds work.

Who Determines the Starting Line of NFL Odds?

Just to have a better understanding of the process, we have to explain how odds work and what they actually are. We all know that the odds are numbers affect your possible winnings, not all bettors know that the odds are actually probabilities for certain things in sporting events.

Basically, the bookmakers run complex checks and data digging before every match just to analyze the probability or chances for certain things happening in a match. They also use high-end software that analyses large piles of data quickly.

But instead of placing the probability of the match as an odd, they transform the probability into a number in a different odd format.

The first numbers bettors see for every week’s betting in the NFL are determined by a professional group of oddsmakers that convene to give every game’s outcome an opening number. In the odd creation process, there are many things that go into consideration.

Oddsmakers use complex formulas to determine the probability of every outcome in a game, and even create simulations or use other statistics-based programs to help them create the starting number. Even though computers are very clever nowadays, the odds still rely on the human element.

Since the odds rely on many factors, it is very hard for a computer to analyze and come up with a number for every game. However, due to the many factors that professional oddsmakers need to consider, the human element in betting is always present. This means that sometimes bookmakers can present inaccurate odds that are not connected to the probability of certain things in an event. 

Why do Betting Lines Move?

Even if you are a casual bettor, there is a good chance that you’ve noticed a line movement in the odds for different matches as the event approaches. 

Once professional oddsmakers create the opening lines, sharp and professional bettors take advantage of those lines and place bets on the matches that have the highest probability of happening based on their research. This can impact the betting lines and make them shift in one direction or the other.

However, the betting lines are affected by many things and they can change as the event approaches despite the betting choices of people. For example, changes in the weather, players that will be playing, injuries, coaching decisions, and much more.

Even though in some cases, bookmakers get access to insider information about NFL games, most of the time they get the news about certain changes before the event as fast as everyone else. Their goal is to change the odds before most people realize that such change can impact the outcome of a game.

The Goal for Bookmakers

In an ideal world, sportsbooks hope to receive an equal betting volume on both sides, which means that regardless of the outcome, they’ll make 5-10% juice (vig) from the commission from each bet.

However, this is not the case in every match and sometimes there is a disbalance in the betting action between two NFL opponents. 

That is why in most cases, sportsbooks don’t want to create the ideal picture of reality painted with the odds between two teams. Instead, their goal is to migrate your sportsbook’s risk in a way where people will choose both betting actions equally.

How to Beat the Oddsmakers’ NFL Odds?

As we mentioned before, the odds made by sportsbooks are not perfect. In fact, sometimes they intentionally set higher odds just to make certain decisions feel riskier for some people and impact their betting decision.

This means that there are plenty of ways you can beat the oddsmaker’s NFL odds. 

The best way is to make thorough research in the NFL space and consider many factors in a betting game. Basically becoming a handicapper of NFL games where you’ll run in-depth research before every match. Once you follow all the information from the NFL, you’ll develop a sense of how to pick the right matches and take advantage of the odds before they are changed.

Also, it is really important to track your betting record. Saving your betting data and the odds for each bet can help you create a winning strategy that will take advantage of the starting odds set by the bookmakers.